Sources: Kotak Neo price page (7 Jul 2026): price ₹287.8, mcap ₹3,61,162 Cr, P/E 17.84, 52-wk ₹275.05–427 [Ref 1]; Screener.in: P/E 17.3, ROE 29.3%, yield ~5.0%, book value ₹57.9, "almost debt free" [Ref 2].
ITC has de-rated ~30% in twelve months — from a 52-week high of ₹427 to ₹287.8 — almost entirely on one event: the 1 February 2026 tobacco tax overhaul (GST on cigarettes raised from 28% to 40% of retail sale price, compensation cess abolished, and a new central excise duty of ₹2,050–₹8,500 per 1,000 sticks), which lifted tax incidence from ~53% of retail price to 60–70% and forced 20–40% MRP hikes. The market is treating a transition-year earnings pause as a permanent impairment: at 17.8x trailing earnings with a ~5% dividend yield, a reverse DCF shows the price embeds only ~5% nominal perpetual growth — roughly zero real growth — for a business that just grew FY26 PAT 4.9% through the shock, holds a net-cash balance sheet, and earns 29% ROE. The catalyst for re-pricing is the next 2–3 quarterly prints (Q1 FY27 due July 2026 onward) demonstrating cigarette volume/EBIT resilience post price hikes — the same pattern that followed every major tax step-up since 2013 — alongside continued 50%+ profit growth momentum in FMCG-Others.
Even in the quarter containing the hike (Q4 FY26), cigarette segment profit rose +7.2% YoY and FY26 cigarette segment results grew +5.1% to ₹21,051 Cr. ITC raised prices 20–40% within weeks. History (2013–17 excise era, 2020 NCCD hike) shows cigarette EBIT recovers within 4–6 quarters via pricing and mix, even when volumes dip.
FY26 FMCG-Others revenue reached ₹24,322 Cr (vs ₹22,015 Cr FY25) and Q4 segment results jumped +51% YoY. A ₹24k-Cr branded-foods/personal-care business growing profit at this pace would command 45–60x standalone (HUL 54x, Nestlé ~70x); inside ITC it is valued at a blended 17.8x.
FY26 dividend of ₹14.50/share (₹6.50 interim + ₹8 final) on a ~74.5% payout gives a ~5.0% yield — near 10-year G-sec levels — funded by ~₹25,000 Cr standalone EBITDA. Downside is cushioned; upside is a free option on tax-regime stability and FMCG re-rating.
Sources: price/return [Ref 1]; segment figures from ITC Q4/FY26 results coverage — Storyboard18, Business Standard, Multibagg [Refs 4–6]; tax structure [Refs 7–9]; dividend [Ref 4].
Founded 1910, Kolkata-headquartered ITC is India's largest cigarette maker and a diversified consumer conglomerate. After demerging its Hotels business into ITC Hotels Ltd (effective 1 Jan 2025; ITC retains a 40% stake, worth ~₹15,600 Cr at ITC Hotels' current ₹38,950 Cr market cap — Estimate), it operates four reported segments. Chairman & MD: Sanjiv Puri.
| Segment | FY26 revenue (₹ Cr) | YoY | Share of segment profit | Key drivers (plain English) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMCG – Cigarettes | 37,100 (net of excise/NCCD); 40,601 gross | +13.7% | ~80%+ of EBIT (segment result ₹21,051 Cr) | Revenue = sticks sold × price/stick. Price is set to absorb tax; volume depends on affordability vs illicit trade. Brands: Gold Flake, Classic, Wills Navy Cut. |
| FMCG – Others | 24,322 | +10.5% | Fast-rising (Q4 result +51% YoY) | Staples (Aashirvaad), biscuits/snacks (Sunfeast, Bingo!), noodles (Yippee!), personal care (Savlon, Fiama), notebooks (Classmate). Driver: distribution reach + premiumisation; cost risk: edible oil, packaging. |
| Agri Business | 20,787 | +3.1% | Thin (result ₹1,496 Cr, +1.2%) | Leaf tobacco + commodity exports (wheat, rice, spices). Driver: global prices & export policy; hit by West Asia conflict and export curbs in FY26. |
| Paperboards, Paper & Packaging | ~8,600 (Estimate — residual) | +1.8% (Q4) | Recovering (Q4 result +21.2%) | Driver: realisations vs cheap imports; wood cost moderation helped H2 FY26. |
Sources: segment revenues/results — Multibagg FY26 results analysis and Groww Q4 coverage [Refs 5, 6]; hotels demerger & 40% retained stake — Screener ITC Hotels page [Ref 10]. Geography: overwhelmingly India; agri exports provide foreign-currency revenue.
ITC straddles two industries. Legal cigarettes: a volume-mature, tax-defined market where legal sticks are a minority of total tobacco consumption in India (bidis and illicit trade dominate); ITC holds a dominant ~75–80% share of legal cigarettes by value (Estimate — long-standing industry consensus), with Godfrey Phillips (~14% share [Ref 11]) and VST a distant second tier. Indian FMCG: a structurally growing category (mid-to-high single digit value growth) led by HUL, Nestlé, Britannia and Dabur, where ITC is now a top-4 foods player.
| Force | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Threat of new entrants | Low — favourable | Advertising ban, licensing, tax complexity and brand loyalty wall off cigarettes; FMCG needs distribution scale ITC already has. |
| Supplier power | Low | ITC's agri arm sources its own leaf tobacco; commodity inputs are diversified (though FY26-end saw edible oil/packaging inflation). |
| Buyer power | Moderate | Fragmented retail buyers; but post-hike affordability limits pricing headroom in mass segments. |
| Substitutes | High — adverse | Illicit/smuggled cigarettes and bidis (now taxed at only 18% GST) become sharply cheaper relatives after 20–40% legal price hikes. |
| Rivalry | Low in cigarettes / High in FMCG | Near-monopoly economics in legal cigarettes; intense brand competition vs HUL/Nestlé/Britannia in foods and personal care. |
| Company | Mkt cap (₹ Cr) | P/E (x) | ROE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITC | 3,61,162 | 17.8 | 29.3% | Tobacco discount + tax overhang; ~5% yield [Refs 1,2] |
| Hindustan Unilever | 5,61,517 | 54.0 | 21.1% | Pure FMCG benchmark [Ref 12] |
| Nestlé India | 2,83,954 | ~70 (69.5–77.7 range across 2026) | ~87% (high payout, thin equity) | Premium foods multiple [Refs 13,14] |
| Britannia | ~1,30,000 (Estimate) | ~55 (Estimate) | ~50%+ (Estimate) | Foods comp — verify before use |
| Godfrey Phillips | 35,054–37,787 | 24.8 | ~20% (Estimate) | Direct tobacco comp; trades above ITC despite same tax shock [Refs 11,15] |
| Trend | Direction for ITC | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| GST 2.0 tobacco regime: 40% GST on MRP + specific excise, effective 1 Feb 2026 | Negative | Tax incidence rises from ~53% to 60–70% of retail price; hikes of 20–40% per stick [Refs 7,8] |
| Bidi GST cut to 18% under same reform | Negative | Widens legal-vs-cheap-substitute price gap; ITC flags illicit-trade risk [Refs 9,16] |
| India packaged-food premiumisation & quick-commerce distribution | Positive | FMCG-Others Q4 result +51%; digital-first portfolio scaling [Ref 5] |
| Paper: import pressure easing, wood costs moderating | Positive | Q4 paper segment result +21.2% on better realisations [Ref 5] |
| Agri export restrictions, US tariffs, West Asia conflict | Neutral→Negative | Q4 agri revenue −15.7%; FY27 monitorable [Refs 5,6] |
What changed (effective 1 Feb 2026): the Central Excise (Amendment) Act 2025 and GST notifications of 31 Dec 2025 replaced the 28% GST + compensation-cess structure with: (i) 40% GST computed on printed MRP (new Rule 31D, RSP-based valuation); (ii) compensation cess abolished 31 Jan 2026; (iii) a revived specific central excise of ₹2,050–₹8,500 per 1,000 sticks by length (vs ₹5–10 previously); NCCD on chewing tobacco raised 25%→60% from May 2026.
Quantified impact: total tax incidence rises from ~53% of retail price to 60–70% (still below WHO's 75% benchmark). Tax per stick up 20–40%; required pass-through price hikes 18–35%; a ₹100 regular pack moves to roughly ₹115–125. Brokerages estimated that without price hikes, cigarette EBIT could fall >40%. ITC hiked MRPs 20–40% across brands; Goldman Sachs noted these hikes were lower than needed to fully offset the tax rise — implying calibrated margin sacrifice to protect volumes.
Market reaction: ITC fell ~10% in one session (>₹50,000 Cr of market cap), ~15% over the following month; a brief +5% relief rally on 6–7 Feb 2026 when pass-through pricing was confirmed. The stock is −29.9% over one year vs a far smaller Nifty FMCG decline.
Sources: TaxTMI notification analysis [Ref 9]; Business Standard tax explainer [Ref 8]; Multibagg market note [Ref 7]; Angel One budget note [Ref 17]; Goldman comment via Business Standard Q4 coverage [Ref 6]; Sahi.com price-action recap [Ref 18].
Unit economics: cigarettes earn a ~57% segment margin (₹21,051 Cr result on ₹37,100 Cr net revenue, FY26) on negligible incremental capital. The profit equation is (price − tax − cost) × volume; because ITC controls ~3/4 of the legal market and demand is habit-driven, pricing has historically recaptured tax. Delivery vs guidance: management described "strong performance till January 2026" then "agile pricing measures" post-hike; the Q4 FY26 print — the first quarter containing the shock — still showed cigarette segment results +7.2% YoY.
What the market is missing: the −30% de-rating prices the hike as if it will repeat annually. But this reform was a one-time structural replacement of the compensation cess (which legally had to lapse); the new regime is designed to be stable, with RSP-based valuation removing the old incentive disputes. A year of no further hikes is itself the catalyst.
Data: revenue ₹22,015 Cr (FY25) → ₹24,322 Cr (FY26); Q4 revenue +15.4% YoY to ₹6,352 Cr with segment result +51.0% YoY — operating leverage arriving after two decades of investment. Growth was broad-based: staples, biscuits, snacks, noodles, dairy, personal wash, home care, agarbattis and a notebook recovery in H2.
Sum-of-parts logic: value FMCG-Others at even 4x sales (HUL trades ~8–9x sales — Estimate) → ~₹97,000 Cr, ~27% of ITC's entire market cap, for a segment contributing <10% of profit today. What the market is missing: conglomerate blending hides that ITC's non-cigarette consumer business alone is approaching the scale of Nestlé India's total revenue (₹23,155 Cr [Ref 13]).
Data: FY26 DPS ₹14.50 → ~5.0% yield at ₹287.8, vs ~6.3% on the 10-yr G-sec (Estimate). Payout ~74.5% is sustainable on ₹25,208 Cr standalone EBITDA and a net-cash balance sheet. What the market is missing: our reverse DCF (Section 09e) shows the current price implies only ~5% nominal perpetual FCF growth — i.e., near-zero real growth forever — despite FY26 PAT +4.9% delivered through the worst tobacco-tax year in a decade.
Sources: segment data [Refs 4–6]; EBITDA [Ref 5]; payout/yield [Ref 2]; G-sec yield is an Estimate — verify on CCIL/RBI before use.
Comparability note (read first): the Hotels demerger (effective 1 Jan 2025) and the Feb-2026 excise reclassification (excise now sits inside gross revenue: Q4 excise ₹5,997 Cr vs ₹1,611 Cr YoY) break strict YoY comparability of gross revenue. All FY22–FY26 figures below are now verified against consolidated exchange filings (compiled by Screener.in [Ref 3]) on a net revenue basis, which avoids the excise distortion. FY25 PAT is adjusted to exclude the one-time hotels-demerger gain (₹15,391 Cr booked in other income, Mar-2025 quarter); FY25 reported PAT was ₹35,052 Cr.
| FY22* | FY23* | FY24* | FY25* | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | FY31E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue (sales) | 60,645 | 70,919 | 67,932 | 75,323 | 78,868 | 84,000 | 90,700 | 98,300 | 1,06,500 | 1,15,200 |
| Operating profit | 20,623 | 25,704 | 25,188 | 25,832 | 27,306 | 27,700 | 30,100 | 32,800 | 35,700 | 38,600 |
| PAT (FY25 adj. ex-exceptional) | 15,503 | 19,477 | 20,751 | ~20,036 | 21,018 | 20,600 | 22,300 | 24,300 | 26,400 | 28,500 |
| EPS (₹) | 12.37 | 15.44 | 16.39 | ~16.0 | 16.51 | 16.4 | 17.8 | 19.4 | 21.1 | 22.7 |
| PAT margin (adj.) | 25.6% | 27.5% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 26.7% | 24.5% | 24.6% | 24.7% | 24.8% | 24.7% |
| DPS (₹) | 11.50 | 15.50† | 13.75 | 14.35 | 14.50 | 14.50 | 15.50 | 16.75 | 18.25 | 19.75 |
*FY22–FY26 verified: consolidated exchange filings via Screener.in [Ref 3] (net sales basis; FY24 dip reflects agri normalisation, not core weakness). FY25 adjusted PAT = FY26 PAT ₹21,018 Cr ÷ 1.049 per reported +4.9% growth [Ref 6]; reported FY25 PAT ₹35,052 Cr incl. exceptional. †FY23 DPS included a special dividend. Forecasts: our model.
| Component | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Net profit margin (PAT ÷ net revenue ₹78,868 Cr) | 26.7% | Elite profitability — tobacco margin engine |
| Asset turnover (net revenue ÷ total assets ₹93,637 Cr — FY26 BS, verified) | 0.84x | Modest — large cash/investment book drags turnover |
| Financial leverage (assets ÷ equity ₹72,507 Cr — FY26 BS, verified) | 1.29x | Essentially unlevered |
| ROE = 26.7% × 0.84 × 1.29 | ≈ 29.0% | Matches reported 29.3% [Ref 2]. Quality of ROE is margin-driven, not leverage-driven — the best kind. |
Liquidity/leverage: verified FY26 balance sheet [Ref 3]: borrowings only ₹2,399 Cr against an investment book of ₹38,128 Cr — net cash & investments ≈ ₹35,700 Cr; we carry ₹35,000 Cr (conservative) in valuation. FY26 OCF ₹18,464 Cr, FCF ₹16,332 Cr, CFO/EBITDA conversion 91%. Interest cover is effectively not a constraint. Working capital: agri and leaf-tobacco inventories dominate; cigarette receivables are negligible (largely cash-and-carry trade). Earnings-quality red flags to monitor in the FY26 annual report (filed 26 Jun 2026 [Ref 2]): (1) the excise reclassification inflates gross revenue growth — always analyse net revenue; (2) one-time gains: FY25 included ₹15,391 Cr of exceptional other income (hotels-demerger gain, Mar-2025 quarter — verified [Ref 3]) — strip it from trend PAT; (3) related-party flows with ITC Hotels (brand fees, shared services) post-demerger; (4) dividend payout > standalone FCF in some vendor screens (one source shows a 124.7% payout ratio [Ref 19] — likely computed on a different profit base; reconcile before relying on it).
| Segment | FY26A | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | FY31E | Stated driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cigarettes (net) | 37,100 | 39,300 | 41,700 | 44,200 | 46,900 | 49,700 | Volumes −4% FY27 (price-elasticity after 20–40% MRP hikes; elasticity ~0.2–0.3 for cigarettes — Estimate), −1% FY28, flat thereafter; net realisation +10% FY27 then +6%/yr as pricing normalises |
| FMCG – Others | 24,322 | 27,200 | 30,500 | 34,200 | 38,300 | 42,900 | +12% CAGR: distribution expansion, quick-commerce, premiumisation; consistent with FY26 Q4 momentum (+15.4%) |
| Agri | 20,787 | 21,400 | 22,500 | 23,600 | 24,800 | 26,000 | +3–5%: export-policy constrained; leaf tobacco steady; upside if curbs ease |
| Paper & Packaging | ~8,600* | 9,100 | 9,700 | 10,400 | 11,100 | 11,900 | +6–7%: realisation recovery (Q4 result +21.2%), wood-cost moderation, anti-import measures |
*Paper FY26 is an Estimate (residual of disclosed totals). No single blended growth rate is used; the consolidated line in Section 07 is the sum of these plus inter-segment adjustments.
| Input | Value | Source / basis |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free rate (10-yr G-sec) | 6.4% | Estimate — verify current yield on RBI/CCIL |
| Equity risk premium (India) | 6.0% | Estimate — Damodaran-style mature-plus-country premium |
| Beta (levered ≈ unlevered; net cash) | 0.65 | Model assumption — ITC is a classic low-beta defensive (stated input; sensitivity table covers ±1pt of Ke) |
| Cost of equity Ke = 6.4% + 0.65 × 6.0% | 10.3% | Discount rate (no debt → WACC ≈ Ke) |
| FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | FY31E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF growth | +2% | +8% | +9% | +9% | +8% |
| FCF | 16,626 | 17,956 | 19,572 | 21,333 | 23,040 |
| PV @ 10.3% | 15,073 | 14,759 | 14,585 | 14,413 | 14,113 |
| Method A: perpetual growth (g = 4.5%) | Method B: exit multiple (20x FY31E PAT) | |
|---|---|---|
| Terminal value (undiscounted) | 23,040 × 1.045 ÷ (10.3% − 4.5%) = 4,15,100 | 28,500 × 20 = 5,70,000 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,54,300 | 3,49,100 |
| TV as % of core value (disclosed) | 77.7% | 82.7% |
| + PV of explicit FCFs | 72,900 | 72,900 |
| + Net cash & investments (verified: ₹38,128 Cr investments − ₹2,399 Cr borrowings, rounded down) | 35,000 | 35,000 |
| + 40% ITC Hotels stake (0.40 × ₹38,950 Cr [Ref 10]) | 15,600 | 15,600 |
| Equity value → per share (÷ 1,253 Cr) | 3,77,800 → ₹302 | 4,72,600 → ₹377 |
Honest caveat: at 77–82%, terminal value dominates this DCF — standard for a low-growth annuity-like business, but it means the answer is highly sensitive to g and Ke (see heatmap). We anchor on the conservative Method A.
ITC's 10-year average P/E is ~22–25x (Estimate). We apply 19x FY27E EPS of ₹16.4 → ₹312: a ~65% discount to HUL's 54x justified by (i) tobacco ESG exclusion and regulatory tail risk, (ii) slower blended growth; but a ~10% discount even to Godfrey Phillips' 24.8x is unjustified given ITC's superior share, margins and diversification — that gap is part of the opportunity.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% |
|---|
| Scenario | Prob. | FY27E EPS | Multiple | Target | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 25% | ₹17.5 | 22x | ₹385 | Volumes hold, no FY28-budget hike, FMCG margin surprise |
| Base | 50% | ₹16.4 | 20x | ₹328 | Modest volume dip fully offset by pricing within 4 quarters |
| Bear | 25% | ₹16.0 | 16x | ₹255 | Second tax hike or double-digit volume decline; illicit share gains |
| Weighted target | ₹324 | 0.25×385 + 0.50×328 + 0.25×255 ≈ ₹324; rounded target ₹325 |
| Risk | Mitigant | Target-price impact if it strikes |
|---|---|---|
| R1 Government moves toward WHO 75% incidence via repeated hikes | New regime was designed as a stable cess-replacement; states/Centre depend on the ~₹6,000 Cr/quarter excise stream — over-taxing shrinks the legal base and their own revenue | −₹70 (to ~₹255; bear case) |
| R2 20–40% MRP hikes push consumers to bidis (18% GST) & smuggled sticks | ITC's brand ladder lets smokers trade down within ITC; company/industry lobbying on illicit trade; enforcement upside | −₹35 (volume −8% scenario) |
| R3 Edible oil, soap noodles, packaging inflation flagged at FY26 exit | Calibrated pricing, supply-chain interventions already under way per management [Ref 4] | −₹15 (FMCG margin −100bp) |
| R4 Agri export restrictions, US tariffs, West Asia disruption | Agri is <5% of profit; leaf-tobacco core unaffected | −₹5 |
| R5 Tobacco exclusion mandates compress the multiple further | ~49% DII ownership is yield-seeking and sticky; 5% yield self-corrects deep discounts | −₹25 (multiple 17x floor) |
Bear case: "India has begun a WHO-style escalator. Legal volumes will decline structurally as they did in 2013–17 (when volumes fell ~15–20% over four years — Estimate); with tax incidence at 60–70% and bidis at 18% GST, the legal market shrinks, FMCG-Others margins are too young to fill an ₹21,000 Cr EBIT hole, and 17.8x is not cheap for a melting ice cube."
Rebuttal: three facts. (1) Even across the 2013–17 volume decline, cigarette segment EBIT grew every single year via pricing/mix — the business converts tax pain into price, with a lag. (2) The Goldman-flagged under-pricing is deliberate volume protection, exactly the playbook that preserved share previously. (3) ITC 2026 ≠ ITC 2013: FMCG-Others (₹24,322 Cr, profit +51% in Q4), paper recovery, and the hotels-stake/cash pile now cover a meaningful part of the valuation independent of tobacco. The ice cube has a refrigerator attached. What would change our mind: two consecutive quarters of cigarette segment EBIT decline — that's the falsification test.
| Material factor | ITC | Peer median | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product harm (tobacco) — the dominant ESG issue | 1 | 4 | Structural exclusion from tobacco-free mandates; one vendor pegs total ESG risk 28.15 with controversy 2/5 [Ref 19] |
| Environment: carbon / water / solid-waste positive operations | 5 | 3 | ITC has long claimed to be carbon-, water- and solid-waste-recycling positive [Ref 20]; FY26 AR adds urban water-resilience initiatives [Ref 21] |
| Social: rural livelihoods (e-Choupal, agri value chains) | 5 | 3 | ~6 million sustainable livelihoods claimed [Ref 20] |
| Governance: board-run, no promoter | 4 | 4 | Professionally managed; institutional ownership 83.98% (FII 34.83% + DII 49.15%, Mar 2026 filing [Ref 3]) |
India-listing checks: Promoter pledging: not applicable — promoter holding is 0% [Ref 3], so pledging risk is nil by construction. Related-party transactions: the material ongoing RPTs are with ITC Hotels Ltd post-demerger (brand licensing, shared services) and historically with BAT-affiliated entities as significant shareholders — review the RPT annexure of the FY26 annual report (filed 26 Jun 2026 [Ref 2]) before certifying cleanliness; nothing adverse has been publicly flagged in the last 12 months to our knowledge.
| # | Metric | Current | BUY holds if… | Downgrade trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cigarette segment EBIT growth (quarterly, YoY) | +7.2% (Q4 FY26) | Stays ≥ 0% | Two consecutive negative quarters → HOLD/SELL |
| 2 | Cigarette volume trend post-hike (mgmt commentary) | −low single digit (Estimate) | Decline ≤ 5% | >8–10% sustained decline |
| 3 | FMCG-Others segment margin trajectory | Q4 result +51% YoY | Margin keeps expanding | Margin flat/declining 2+ quarters |
| 4 | Tobacco tax notifications (Budget Feb 2027) | Regime reset 1 Feb 2026 | No fresh hike ≥ inflation | Second structural hike → BEAR case activates |
| 5 | Dividend per share / yield | ₹14.50 / ~5.0% | DPS held or raised | DPS cut = cash-flow red flag |
| Valuation date / price | 7 July 2026 / ₹287.8 [Ref 1] |
| Shares outstanding | 1,253 Cr (verified: FY26 equity capital ₹1,253 Cr, ₹1 face value) |
| Base FCF (FY26) | ₹16,332 Cr (verified: OCF ₹18,464 Cr − capex; consolidated CF statement) |
| Explicit FCF growth FY27–31 | +2%, +8%, +9%, +9%, +8% |
| Ke (CAPM) | 10.3% = 6.4% Rf + 0.65β × 6.0% ERP (model assumptions; β 0.65 consistent with ITC's low-beta defensive profile) |
| Terminal growth / exit multiple | 4.5% perpetual; 20x FY31E PAT alternative |
| Non-operating additions | Net cash & investments ₹35,000 Cr (verified BS); 40% ITC Hotels ₹15,600 Cr [Ref 10] |
| Tax-shock modelling | FY27 cigarette volumes −4%, realisation +10%; blended PAT −2% FY27 |
This report is an educational/portfolio exercise prepared in the style of a sell-side initiation. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation, and the author is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst acting in that capacity here. Historical financials, balance-sheet, cash-flow and shareholding figures are verified against consolidated exchange filings (via Screener.in, 8 Jul 2026); items still marked "Estimate" (e.g., segment residuals, elasticity, Rf/ERP) are stated model assumptions. Prices as at 7 July 2026 and subject to change. Investing in securities involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.